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Friday, February 28, 2025

The Horror of Climate Change (updated from 2023)

Know someone scared about "increasing extreme weather"? In addition to the below, please share this (and this, linked within the first). They are long and thorough. 

The below is from 2023.

Lin Manuel Miranda - Hurricane



It is clear from media reports that climate change is making the planet uninhabitable. The list of tragedies is simply incredible, including an unprecedented hurricane that wiped out Galveston, Texas, killing over 10,000 people. That made it the deadliest natural disaster ever in the United States, beating out the worst heatwave and flood.

But that is nothing compared to China's Yangtze–Huai River floods. Those killed somewhere between hundreds of thousands and millions.

Don't these events prove that climate change is already humanity's worst crisis, demanding all of our attention and sacrifice? 

Umm...

The Galveston hurricane was in 1900 (the deadliest heatwave was in 1936; the deadliest flood in 1862). The Chinese floods were in 1931.

The climate was never "safe." 

The world was not better in the past.

Look just at hurricanes. On the chart of the 10 Deadliest Hurricanes in the United States, only two are in this century, despite the vastly larger population living on the coasts. 

The deadliest Atlantic hurricane was in 1780 - again, even though the population was a small fraction of what it is today. After Galveston, the third deadliest was Mitch in 1998, killing thousands in Central America.

I understand that for many people, doom gives life meaning. But in reality, the problem isn't the climate is going from benign to hostile. What kills people is poverty - a lack of development and protection. That is why so many more people died from natural disasters in the past. 

If we want to make life better for humans, we shouldn't be destroying people's mental health with exaggerations and lies. We should push for development, which is, by far, the best answer to any climate ... if you care about human misery. But development is explicitly what the crueler climate fanatics oppose.

Bonus reading from Matt Yglesias: "The two kinds of progressives."

Wednesday, February 26, 2025

Outsourced to share: If you want to make a difference, log off and take action


By Matthew Yglesias in 2024: Negativity is making everyone miserable

The point of my chapter, "Very Little Really Matters," in which I quote ... Matt Yglesias.

Don't ask, "Is this upsetting?" Ask, "Is getting upset helping anything?"

As a wise person once noted:

But taking in horror after horror doesn’t make you a good person. Making a difference makes you a good person.

excerpts (from Matt's new piece, not Losing, although it could be!):

People who are living in the United States of America in 2024 are living in what is indisputably one of the richest countries on the planet, at a time of unprecedented global prosperity.

And yet, even in a mass culture that’s increasingly consumed by questions of privilege, you rarely hear expressions of gratitude for the reality of that basic good fortune. It’s more common to hear expressions of apocalyptic levels of alarm about living in “a world on fire” or through a series of “unprecedented” traumas. ...

The world, including the United States of America, obviously has problems, and some things really are trending in a bad direction. And yet this has always been the case. The main thing that has actually changed is that the media landscape has become much more competitive and people (yes, people like you) prefer to click and share on negative stories. So a lot of people spend time doomscrolling, amping up negativity on their social media feeds to maximize engagement, and propagating a worldview that says the best way to be a good citizen is to engage in performative sobbing or raging.

This is all, I think, a mistake. ...

Trends are broadly positive and have been for a long time. Many bad things continue to happen, but that has always been the case, and problems can generally be solved more effectively by trying to slice them down into specific, narrow pieces rather than lumping everything together. Most negativity results from conscious or unconscious framing choices that compete evolutionarily in a “survival of the most downbeat” framework. The best thing to do to live a happily life is to feel like you are a person with agency and the ability to exert control over the world. And the best way to do that is cut down on the doomscrolling and try to think of specific ways you can take action to help with tractable problems. ...

A better world is not only possible, it’s something we are living through. But to make it even better, you need to do stuff, not talk about how bad everything is. ...

In the current economic recovery, wealth has grown most rapidly at the bottom and so have wages. ...

Back when homicide was, in fact, surging in 2020-2021, I thought “things were worse in the 1990s” was a lame response. But we’re now living through the third straight year of falling murder, the drop appears to be accelerating, and the fact that the spike peaked at a lower level than we saw in my childhood does feel relevant to me. It’s not just that the murder situation is getting better, the overall policy feedback loop has improved — that, not “spiking rates of gun violence,” seems like the story to me. ...

Obesity is a genuine problem, but the rate has been rising as far back as we can find records (i.e., the 1880s and possibly earlier), so this is hardly a reason to feel like the world is suddenly in disarray. The actual big news on obesity is that we, for the first time ever, have a new class of drugs that appear to be highly effective in treating it. There are more GLP-1 agonists in development, and it looks like they have benefits beyond treating obesity.

Something that I do note about the GLP-1 drugs is that the media coverage of them has been oddly negative, almost obsessively focused on downsides, to the point that Rachael Bedard’s piece arguing that actually it’s good that we had a medical breakthrough on a serious problem counts as a contrarian take. ...

Problems just don’t get nearly as much attention when they are ameliorated. ...

[A] lot of people used to spend a lot of time talking and worrying about these worst-case scenarios. They were considered a really big deal! But the good news today has been almost totally ignored. ...

Consuming negative news in the morning impairs your job performance and leads viewers to catastrophize about their personal life. When news consumption makes you anxious, the natural response is to monitor the situation even more closely, which is good for ratings and engagement. ...

[In addition to chickens on factory farms...] There are hundreds of thousands of Sudanese refugees living in Egypt in dire conditions, and UNCHR needs your money to help take care of them. You can turn money into lives saved very directly via GiveWell’s top charities fund. You can transfer cash directly to some of the poorest people in the world via GiveDirectly. The Israel-Palestine conflict is in a kind of discourse sweet spot where it relates to a lot of identity-linked issues that people feel passionately about but also has extremely low tractability — there isn’t much you, personally, can do about it except post, with the convention being that the more extreme your posts, the more it shows you care. This is, in a sense, convenient. You’re not challenged to put your own money on the line the way you would be if you chose to get invested in something else. But it’s psychologically disempowering and does little good for the world. ...

Monday, February 24, 2025

2024's #1 You can be happy and still make a difference.

January 22, 2023  

Yeah - a 2023 post was most popular in 2024. At least it is good, unlike #2

 Song: Sade "The Sweetest Taboo"


This Twitter thread (not an endorsement! post from 2023) makes an important point: Environmentalists often make claims that are misleading at best. In this case, the claim is that our food system is terrible because things get shipped from other countries. But driving a few blocks to your local farmers' market releases more carbon dioxide than shipping pears all around the world. 

(Wherever you spend time online, be sure to follow Hannah Ritchie and see her Wired article, which makes the point I make in the Greta Thunberg chapter in Losing My Religions).

The more important point is that we should stop paying attention to - let alone obsessing about - minutia, like the carbon footprint of a banana. (Please read "Very Little Really Matters" in LMR.) 

Instead, focus on issues where you can help bring about more systematic change that will have an impact: 

  • Few people advocate for the most abused animals, so please support One Step for Animals
  • Most people who care about climate oppose things that can make a difference: nuclear power and development. Advocate for those.
  • In general, most people who care about anything are focused on something that moves them personally (children, dogs, their personal church / religion / philosophy). Advocate instead for taking suffering seriously.

Or, as I conclude in that Losing My Religions chapter:

Choose where you can make a difference. You don’t need to know everything. You don’t need to read or watch everything. As Nobel Laureate (and one of Anne’s colleagues at Carnegie Mellon) Herb Simon said: “[A] wealth of information creates a poverty of attention.” (Quoted in our fellow Illini Nick Offerman’s Gumption.)

Relatedly, as Matthew Yglesias said, “One shouldn't be complacent about the problems in the world, but one should avoid frustration about them.” (Offered even though you should never trust anyone named Matt.)

You don’t need to be depressed. You don’t deserve to be depressed. You can be happy and still make a difference. Indeed, I would contend that being happy makes it easier to make a difference over the long haul – both in your ability to work constructively and in the example you set for others.


Friday, February 21, 2025

Free Will is the New Jesus


It is ... let's say "amusing" ... to hear so many big-brained intellectuals tie themselves into knots claiming they have free will. These are highly-educated individuals, who would (and sometimes do) mock people who believe in a magic friend in the sky. But they insist over and over that they have magic in their heads - magic that somehow creates a causeless cause that overrides the laws of physics.

On Armchair Expert, Dax Shepherd makes the comparison of god(s) and free will in his conversation with Robert Sapolsky. Dax - a huge fan of Sapolsky who thinks Behave* is one of the best books ever - noted that people make some of the same arguments for free will that others make for god(s). 

Like many, Dax will go part of the way, accepting that, say, criminals who had terrible lives aren't responsible for their actions. But he, Dax, does have free will. 

It all comes down to feelings. We like feeling that an all-powerful being loves us (and will give us life after death). We like feeling that we are in control. We like being able to blame others for their "bad choices." We like feeling that we have earned and deserve our awards, accomplishments, and accolades. "It isn't luck! It's my hard work!" 

And, of course, we feel like we are in control, as long as we don't examine that too closely. (Seriously - don't click that link if you want your feelings to remain your "reality.")

So I don't (and can't!) blame anyone for refusing to give up their preferred personal magic. However, their fears are misplaced. Accepting reality can make us happier, as well as more understanding. 

* After writing Behave, people told Sapolsky, "Oh, I don't know about this. It might make people doubt free will." Saposky's reaction was "Might??" That led him to stop being subtle and write Determined: A Science of Life Without Free Will.

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

4 Minutes of Happiness + Harvey

"In this world, you can be oh so smart, or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant." 

-Jimmy Stewart as Elwood P Dowd in the movie Harvey, from this interview with John Green. 

Also: Four Minutes of Swedish Guitar Bliss
Last year, I did some time as a sub at the local high school. My favorite class, by far, was choir, watching kids passionate about singing come together to make surprisingly beautiful music.  

Monday, February 17, 2025

This will be much worse for me than for you. (WTF? 2023 bit is 2nd most-read post of 2024)

Post below from January 22, 2023 
Seriously, how is this a popular post? Skip. Seriously - Yuck.

Also, WTF was up with readership last year?




Bonus: My next book:
A joke (obv?). From this book.


Song (as referenced in the below): Tears for Fears "The Tipping Point."
Also this


By unpopular demand: me reading the first full chapter of Losing My Religions:

"Anything for Her Laugh + Warnings & Notes" (mp3 file)

I have a voice made for print.

Please be kind. I was a cute kid!

Sunday, February 16, 2025

Wednesday, February 12, 2025

For anyone who needs a love song

Styx, Babe 

I remember singing this as a kid.
(Hey - that might explain why I didn't have a girlfriend....)


Monday, February 10, 2025

The End of Veganism (3rd most popular post of 2024, but one of the most important things I've ever written)

March 11, 2024 

I’m a level-five vegan.
I don’t eat anything that casts a shadow.
Jesse Grass to Lisa Simpson, mocking her mere vegetarianism




When the weather turned briefly cooler a while back, Anne and I did a taste-test of the Beyond Meat chicken tenders versus Impossible Foods’ chicken nuggets. I blogged about this and posted the blog on social media. (Excerpt from blog: On Beyond's package, they loudly say “NO GMO’s.” I remember listening to multiple interviews with Beyond’s Ethan Brown, who said, “People tell us they don’t want GMOs.” I have to say, with all due respect, you are talking to the wrong people, Mr. Brown. What people want is cheap meat. Full stop.)

The picture that came along with those social posts was a bag of the Impossible Foods nuggets, winner of the taste test. (Anne still prefers Gardein’s.) That picture prompted some vegans to think that the best use of their time was to angrily comment about how Impossible’s products AREN’T VEGAN! This is because their plant-derived heme – the ingredient Impossible uses to give their beef products that slight “metallic,” bloody taste – had been tested on animals so it could be approved by the FDA.

So: Animal killing that is somehow connected to a company at any point = all their products are NOT VEGAN!

But of course, harvesting “vegan” food kills many animals. Rodent control programs on farms growing vegan food and in facilities producing vegan food kill many animals. Trucks transporting products kill many animals. And so on.

I briefly tried to reply constructively. (“I understand that you’re upset about this. But I don’t care if something is vegan. I only care about what can actually help a lot of animals.”) As is always the case, engaging enrages them further.

Of course, NOT VEGAN Impossible Foods has helped many animals by producing products chosen by people who would otherwise eat animal meat. But it sure hasn’t made them popular with (many) vegans. (“The Impossible Burger Debate Was A Test For Vegans, And We Failed.”)
 
“Vegans or animals” is what ended my career. “Vegans or animals” was the driving force behind our current very non-vegan organization, One Step for Animals. I’ve seen this dynamic for the 35 years since I first stopped eating animals. It took me quite a while to recognize it, being in the vegan bubble myself. But if looked at objectively and without personal ego invested or identity involved (which is not easy) the reality is clear:
 

Veganism has been terminally poisoned by people obsessed with protecting their vegan identity.

 
For this very vocal and visible minority – and yes, it is only a minority of vegans – veganism is only about them and defending their strict rules of being “vegan.” (Or “Vegan,” as some write it.)

At least this is true in the United States. From my time in Germany, for example, it doesn’t seem to be the case there. While editing this chapter, I came across Kenny Torrella’s “How Germany is kicking its meat habit” at Vox. But Deutschland shows the “unintended consequences” of focusing on meat instead of animals: Although per-capita meat consumption is down there, each German is consuming one more factory-farmed animal than ten years ago [2022]. That means that despite a large drop in meat consumption, many millions more animals are suffering on factory farms. Not cool.

Another perfect example of (some) vegans caring about themselves über alles:
 

One: Publicly refuse to eat animals – live vegan

Two: Publicly refuse to sit where people are eating animals

Three: Encourage others to take the pledge

–The Liberation Pledge


Doesn’t that say it all? “Publicly refuse to sit where people are eating animals.” So it isn’t just about the purity of what you consume, but also the purity of anything you see.

Of course, this removes opportunities to actually help animals, because the only way to actually help animals is by being with non-vegans and persuading them to take animals into consideration.

The Liberation Pledge is only one example. My pal Ken recently suggested I listen to an interview with a “vegan advocate” he thought I’d like. In the interview, it was all “advocating veganism,” “promoting veganism,” “making veganism mainstream,” “repeating the case for veganism over and over.” The advocate went on to say his new book was going to be the comprehensive and irrefutable case for veganism.

If only someone had thought of that before.

I wonder how many vegan advocates actually listen to what they are saying. It is all about promoting their diet, their lifestyle, their beliefs. Not actually about animals.

Back in 2016, I was excommunicated from the national animal rights conference and fired from my full-time job. My sin? Quoting, with source, what celebrity chef Anthony Bordain said about vegans. With all the suffering in the world, and all the many people allowing and even perpetuating this cruelty, it was a founder of One Step for Animals who became the bête noire for Gary and his fellow fanatics.

In case it isn’t clear: I did not say anything bad about vegans. I was merely noting what a famous celebrity said about vegans. And for that, I was banned.

That is truly some insecure theocratic bullshit.


How to win friends and influence people.



Paul and I have a saying: The biggest impediment to the spread of veganism is vegans. While I was writing this today, he sent me yet another news story to prove it: A vegan saying drinking pee as the key to longevity. (There was once a table at Vegetarian Summerfest promoting this.)

Don’t get me started.

Over a quarter century ago, our Best Man Mark said, “I grow weary of the term ‘vegan.’ It has just become a label for moral superiority.” And he said this after being a founding board member of our national vegan group.

You might wonder why I’m so strident in my attack on the vegan fanatics, especially since I’m on good drugs and supposedly so mindful.

It is because I helped create them.

Of course, even before Jayne went on her crusade, some vegans have hated me. Eventually, even my long-time best pal turned on me for annoying the Vegan Police. But despite all my efforts to make the focus actually helping animals, I did spend two decades working every day to build up a “vegan” group.

Oops.

It would be one thing if “vegan first, vegan only” was actually helping animals. But if promoting veganism worked – if the next leaflet, book, video, movie, website was really going to make a difference – we would have seen it by now.

How do I know? Because I did the projections.

​Decades ago, I calculated what would happen if every vegan converted just one other person every five years. Have we seen anything like that? No. When Animal Charity Evaluators did the most thorough metastudy of surveys about vegetarianism and veganism, they found: “Around 1% of adults both self-identify as vegetarians and report never consuming meat. [This is important because many people call themselves “vegetarian” but still eat meat.] It seems that this percentage has not changed substantially since the mid-1990s.” [The mid-1990s being when we started our vegan group.]

What I didn’t realize when I built those projections was that the vast majority of people who “go vegan” subsequently quit veganism. Unbiased surveys show that over 80% revert. (And then, of course, spend the rest of their lives badmouthing veganism.)

Why? One survey of former vegans found that the top reason for quitting was that they couldn’t take the pressure to maintain the level of purity demanded by other vegans. Again, vegans are “the greatest impediment” to the growth of veganism.

But really, vegans don’t matter. It is irrelevant how many vegans there are.

The only thing that matters is how much suffering there is.

Think about it. If you were to promote a position that would lead to more suffering than an alternative, would you do so? There might be strange edge cases, but choosing to create more suffering than an available alternative strikes me as pretty much the very definition of immoral.

And on that measure, the world has gotten way worse for non-human animals since Anne and I stopped eating animals and co-founded a group promoting veganism. On average, every person in the United States eats more animals today than ever before in history. This is true globally as well. Those are the simple, bottom-line facts, the facts that all vegan advocates have to answer for.

Everything I’ve learned indicates the United States would be a better place for animals if we ended veganism.

Not that you should eat animal products. (You can, as we’ll get to. [Later in the book.]) But we should never utter or use the word “vegan” again.

Still think we need to promote “vegan”? A 2017 survey found that vegans are viewed more negatively than atheists, immigrants, homosexuals, and asexuals. The only group viewed more negatively than vegans is drug addicts. Another 2017 survey found, “Meat-eaters are being put off going veggie because of certain aggressive vegans.” In 2018 – the year I stopped collecting these stories – researchers found that “vegan” is the single worst word you can possibly use to describe a product – worse than “diet,” “sugar-free,” or “low-calorie.”

As a long-time reader noted:
 
I’ve become almost embarrassed to say I’m vegan ... not because of what it stands for, but because of the negative impression people have been left with due to other vegans and their negative behavior and words.

I talk about this more, with many documenting links and graphs, in my 2017 post, “How Vegans Hurt Animals.” In that blog, I go into more about why vegans are so unpopular. (Tl;dr: It is because they are [justifiably] rage-filled and just can’t get past that.) It is my second-most-popular post of all time, having been hate-linked by many vegans in their ongoing campaigns against me.

Think about it this way: If we want to help animals, why would we use – let alone promote – a word that has such negative baggage? A word that makes people think of pee drinkers, screamers in restaurants, and terrorists. (The latter is what Anthony Bourdain called them.)

What reason could there be to use that word? What possible reason, other than an unwillingness to put helping animals first?

So what is the alternative?

We could and should put the focus entirely and always on the others who need our help.

I certainly don’t think it would hurt if we were all “animal advocates” instead of “vegans” or “vegan advocates.” Never talk about ourselves, never talk about our diet, never talk about our rules or dogma.

It should never be about us.

And of course, I say this as a person who cofounded Animal Liberation Action but allowed the name to be changed to be about veganism instead.

Sorry.


PS: Since it is unlikely everyone will take my advice above, a variety of admirable people are working to support current vegans, in part to lower the recidivism rate and also change the public’s view of vegans. World of Vegan is the prime exemplar of this.


PPS: In case it isn’t clear, I’m not “Vegan.” I’ll outsource this to Vincent, the head of One Step for Animals, Australia, who blogs at theanimalist.medium.com:

Even if all vegans were nice and friendly, the point of my article is that veganism in itself as a movement is not something I want to be a part of. A broader, more inclusive approach focusing more on the animals and less on every detail of an individual’s current lifestyle is more effective. Either way, [veganism] remains nothing but a tool amongst many that can be used against speciesism, for animal rights. It isn’t a goal, and it shouldn’t be a dogma (a principle or set of principles laid down by an authority as incontrovertibly true).

“I have called myself a vegan and worked at changing veganism, but I have come to the conclusion that veganism is what it is and that it is a closed club, which is detrimental when it turns it into a rigid dogmatic venture based on personal purity and exclusion. Veganism as a movement to fight speciesism is not something I embrace or even condone any more.

“I still don’t consume sentient animals and their by-products and I still want to encourage others to do likewise, in a friendly and pragmatic manner. Promoting an animal-friendly lifestyle is a tool, not an end.”

 

Or, as Margaret Atwood put it on Ezra Klein’s podcast:
 
Is it about how virtuous you are?
Or is it about actually trying to better conditions?



Find the rest of the book at LosingMyReligions.net

Sunday, February 9, 2025

Sunday Funnies: Perspective

I don't believe this, but OTOH, I'm glad my "achievements" won't be remembered!



Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Living Well Is the Best Revenge

I'm not following the news, but things leak through. ("I'm glad my faith in humanity is not alive to see this."*) 

As someone in my family noted, one of the only two** goals of one side is to piss off the other side. "Drink liberal tears." They want us despondent. They want us to despair. They want us to be filled with rage. 

Don't help them achieve their goals.

Living well is the best revenge.

*If you've read it, you know I've never had faith in humanity.

**Obv, the other goal is to further enrich themselves. Also, for more on why we act the way we do, this interview with Robert Sapolsky is very good.

Dancing Saguaro. 

Monday, February 3, 2025

An exchange re: advocacy & animals (4th most popular post of 2024)

November 25, 2024 (thought this one would be higher)

Veganuary started in the UK in 2014, and I noted the production of broilers per person in the UK in January increased 4.27 times as fast from 2014 to 2024 as from 1994 to 2013. 


Relevant portions of the full exchange. A message to One Step:

I am currently doing a research fellowship ....

We are currently evaluating the promise of a new organisation running Veganuary campaigns. However, I suspect one explicitly focussed on decreasing the consumption of poultry birds may be more cost-effective. Do you know the cost-effectiveness of One Step for Animals in terms of kg of chicken consumption reduced per $?


From our reply:

Tl;dr: One Step’s “About” page is the most important bit I have to offer.

I’ve worked for and with quite a few animal advocacy organizations in the past 35 years. (I’ve also been on the evaluative side at VegFund.) Having seen (and written) answers these groups have given to questions like yours (e.g., “Our surveys show 5 animals saved for every $100!”) and their budgets, factory farming should have ended and everyone should now be vegan. I’m not casting aspersions; as mentioned here, I did these projections back in the 90s. 

Yet as you know, the average person in the US and globally is eating as many factory-farmed animals as ever before. There is vastly more suffering on factory farms today than 10, 20, 30 years ago. Despite all the claims over the course of decades, the world has never been worse for non-human animals.

Also over the past 35 years, I have read arguments why “Our advocacy is different this time.” But the facts above should leave us more than skeptical about any claims of any “reduction per $.” 

For details on why there is more suffering despite decades of advocacy, please see Meat Reduction Hurts Animals and Good-Faith Advocacy Can Cause More Suffering.

When starting One Step for Animals, our number one priority was to avoid advocacy that, on net, actually causes more suffering. Making sure our advocacy was not causing more suffering was the focus of our previous survey. But of course, we can’t really trust those survey results, given response bias and the fact that any meaningful measure would have to be done over a significant amount of time.

Based on our experience and the lessons we have learned over the past 35 years, not causing harm on net is the only honest claim demand-side advocacy can make. (Welfare reforms like cage-free campaigns are different, but even there, history has shown many “victories” that didn’t actually translate to fewer animals in cages. Work on the supply-side – i.e., plant-based and cultivated animal products – has also not come close to fulfilling the projections and promises.) 

I would be happy to discuss any aspect of this with you further. But One Step won’t make any claims other than “do no harm.” Claims of efficacy simply do not match with reality. Even if not consciously dishonest, these claims are misleading to the point of being actively harmful to animals.

The person I trust most regarding animal suffering is Lewis Bollard at Open Philanthropy Project. He and I don’t agree on everything, but he is not trying to sell a certain story, promote his group or philosophy, or solicit support. He takes suffering very seriously. In addition to being extremely scrupulous and rigorous in evaluations, he constantly monitors himself for self-delusion.

From their reply:

I agree [more suffering despite advocacy] is a concern. Veganuary started in the UK in 2014, and I noted the production of broilers per person in the UK in January increased 4.27 times as fast from 2014 to 2024 as from 1994 to 2013.

 


Follow-up


Learn more about how you can help animals efficiently 

If you would like to support work driven by these facts, please click here.
Note: Open Philanthropy is not a supporter of One Step, but Lewis is. 👍