Money Lessons for the New Year

“I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”
-attributed to Isaac Newton, offered in the context of Bitcoin

Actual advice from here:

1. Experiences shape your perception of risk.

2. Intelligence doesn’t guarantee investment success. Warren Buffett once wrote, “Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with the 130 IQ. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing.”

I’ve met so many highly educated individuals who are terrible investors. They can’t control their emotions because their academic pedigree makes them overconfident in their abilities.

3. No one lives life in the long-term. Long-term returns are the only ones that matter but you have to survive a series of short-terms to get there.

Emotional intelligence is the true sign of investment smarts.

9. The biggest risks are always the same…yet different. The next risk is rarely the same as the last risk because every market environment is different.

On the other hand, the biggest mistakes investors make are often the same — timing the market, recency bias, being fearful when others are fearful and greedy when others are greedy and investing in the latest fads.

10. The market doesn’t care how clever you are. Trying harder doesn’t guarantee more profits.

12. Overthinking can be just as debilitating as not thinking at all. Investing involves irreducible uncertainty about the future.

18. There is a big difference between rich and wealthy. Lots of rich people are miserable. These people are not wealthy, regardless of how much money they have. 

Bonus from here:

When I started investing in 1987, grumpy old men would regularly warn that the market was overvalued and that stock investors would soon receive the punishment they so richly deserved. These market “wisemen” would point out that shares were richly valued based on yardsticks like price-to-book value, dividend yield and price-to-earnings multiples.

And yet, as the years rolled by, stocks kept getting more and more expensive, and those who listened to the grumpy old men were the ones who got punished. It eventually dawned on me that investors couldn’t divine the market’s future by studying valuation measures, and today I pay them scant attention.

Good News / Reader Feedback / Sympathy for the Devil

Thanks so very much for the birthday wishes and donations to #TeamChicken.
This will be a challenging year for One Step - your support really makes a difference. 

 

Good news you probably didn't see: Andrew McAfee's post from Natalia's birthday. Excerpt: "Sea turtles are well outside the normal purview of this blog, so, why am I bringing them up? To spread holiday cheer with the news that their numbers are skyrocketing around the world's oceans."

Regarding Emptiness and Freedom, a reader writes:

Once I accepted determinism, I became more at peace. I stopped hating people and started hating beliefs. I became pretty agnostic in terms of “moral judgement” altogether. We are who we are – we should just try and increase the chances of everyone acting in ways that are ethical. 

Well said!

At least at the moment, my greatest mindfulness challenge remains guys who trick out their cars to be maximally loud. My immediate reaction is still pretty negative. 

I rationally know how hard it must be to be (relatively) alone and below-average intelligence in this world. Combine that with being full of testosterone / aggression / anger / resentment, it must be horrible. As hard as it is, I do feel sympathy for them, which tempers and shortens my anger. 

Your Song for Today

This Year (on Colbert) (Somewhat slower, less frenetic version)

I miss Colbert. But that's part of getting through the year.

Two Truths about a Lie

tl;dr   In 2025, One Step for Animals will no longer receive our largest single annual contribution. The good news is that donation matching is still in effect. Please contribute if you can.

Please share with anyone who believes in animal-first advocacy. Thanks.

++++++

In the 25 years before One Step, I studied fundraising extensively. I was in communications for two eight-figure organizations. During those tenures, I worked closely with "development" teams (fundraisers, details in the postscript.)

Every group used a "matching" contribution to drive donations. I won't get into the details - you know the drill - but the organization always received the "matching" money. 

Except at One Step. One Step receives the matching funds only if the goals are met:

Now, do I know that donating to One Step is the best thing you can do with your money?

No. 

Are you a moral monster for giving to other groups?

Again: No.*

But One Step's work is much better than so many other things. And it won't cause more suffering, unlike the work I did back in the day.

So please donate to One Step's work. 

*Well, maybe. Yeah ... definitely maybe, relatively speaking.

PS from 2023:

The Best Thing Since Almost Dying

Like every political party and candidate, charities have teams dedicated to “development” – which means “figuring out what potential donors want to hear and then telling them that over and over” (and wherever possible, have the message given by attractive young blond women**). 

There is also a “communications” team to “build relationships with” (read: “suck up to” / “feed the ego of”) members of the media. The more nice things said by “third parties,” the more the nonprofit is “validated,” and thus an easier sell to donors and other funders. (“Other people like us – you should too!”)

Comms teams are also dedicated to building a “social media presence” – getting the most likes and clicks, again to show donors just how “popular” the charity is.

For nearly all of my adult life, I have tried to get people to “like” me and whatever organization I was working for at the time. How many views, how many opens, how many likes, how many mentions ... all to serve the ultimate question of how many dollars we could fundraise … so we could then have bigger development and communications teams! WOO!

Two great things have happened since I was fired in 2021 following my fractured neck and had facial reconstruction. Probably the best is that I no longer spend hours every single day desperately trying to figure out how to get people to like me / my group. 

OMG, being freed from this is so fantastic. I honestly had no idea how stressful it had been, nor how great it is to not be constantly viewing everyone as potential profit / seeking external validation. I just can't tell you how great it is. Praise Jebus!

** DUBNER: Give me a sense of how big this beauty effect is. So, let’s say one solicitor is ranked a 9 out of 10 by unbiased or disinterested parties and one is ranked a six. How much more does the nine raise than the six?

LIST: Right, you’re looking at roughly a 100 percent increase when you look at going from a six to a nine.

DUBNER: Oh my goodness. And what about hair color?

LIST: So, hair color ends up being important as well. And it turns out that blondes certainly have more fund raising more money. You just can’t beat a beautiful blonde who’s going door to door to raise money for your cause.   

Second set of color pictures from Losing My Religions

White Sands National Park

Maggie and sunflowers

Multnomah Falls, Oregon

NCAR in front of Boulder's Flatirons

Visitor's Center, White Sands

Ronald's Donuts, Las Vegas

Georgia O'Keefe

Oregon Coast

Peter Singer (cut from book)

Superbloom in Tucson

Hanging garden, Prague

Rathaus, Würzburg, Germany

Holiday Cheer! (Just kidding)

All the below is blah blah blah; feel free to skip. Monday's blog, December 30, will have actual actionable and constructive info.

From here

As a follow-up to The Cult of Doom has always existed, a reader optimistically argues that when people talk about "the planet," they are using it as shorthand for Earth's inhabitants. 

This reminds me of "Vegan." Yes, many people say they are vegan and are concerned first and foremost about animals. For them, veganism is not an end, but merely a means for accomplishing good in the world.

But there are plenty who are "Vegan" who care about "Vegan" in and of itself. That is why the annual summit is called "Animal and Vegan Advocacy."  

I've run this experiment for decades and you can, too: Ask a "Vegan" if, in exchange for everyone in the world eating half as many sentient animals, they personally would eat one cow burger a day, never use the word "vegan" ever again, and never say anything to anyone about their diet or "lifestyle." Unsurprisingly, many "Vegans" would not take that deal. 

The same holds for many of the Earth Cultists. Ask if they would like a world with 15 billion humans whose median standard of living and life expectancy are both higher than today. You can also throw in more "nature" to avoid arguing about wild animals (who probably have net-negative lives on average). 

Loads and loads of Earth Cultists wouldn't take that deal. 

Their actions prove this. They regularly push for policies that are objectively pro-suffering. For example, this arrived in my inbox at the same time as my reader's message from the first paragraph. And this. And this. And this. And this. I'll stop now.

Some argue that to help other animals, you must oppose helping humans. Of course, this is not the case. Opposing factory farms is win/win. What One Step for Animals does is vastly more beneficial for all of Earth's inhabitants than throwing soup on the Mona Lisa. 

As I've pointed out ad nauseam, the Earth (and Doom) Cultists regularly push against policies that would lower greenhouse gas emissions and save huge swaths of wild lands from coal mining. But being anti-nuclear is part of the dogma, regardless of its consequences. Even ignoring the consequences of shutting down nuclear plants, the "salvation" they offer - solar and wind - would require huge amounts of land. 

Being pure to the dogma is all that matters. 

(And we won't get into the "Green" Party electing George W Bush over Al Gore, and then helping defeat Hillary and make the worst human the most powerful person in the world. Again: purity over consequences.) 

So yes, some people talk about "the planet" and actually care about making things better for sentient creatures, just as some people use the word vegan and actually care about making things better for sentient creatures.

But the norm is tribalism leading to cultism leading to bad outcomes. Pragmatists concerned with consequences generally avoid simplifications and slogans. 

With all that said (again), I'm not passing judgment on "environmentalists" and "Vegans." (OK, maybe a little.) I completely understand that biases are inherent and some type of religion seems necessary for people. As a recent reader wrote about Losing My Religions, "I think humans are tribal and I am not convinced secular methods of organizing people wouldn’t have terrible consequences either (e.g. Stalinism, etc)." 

However, I'm hoping that people like you, who actually care about making things better for sentient creatures, will be aware of humans' inherent tribalism and avoid those traps, if only for your personal sanity.

Songs for Solstice

Dar Williams "The Christians and the Pagans" (great, funny lyrics)

If you don't find this time of year super-happy: Sara Bareilles - December (moving)

The Cult of Doom has always existed

Yin and yang: Chocolate Crinkles and broccoli sprouts.

Recently I read (skimmed) a book where an Artificial Intelligence Children of Mens humanity (e.g., sterilizes everyone) to "Save the Earth." While you can, of course, make the case against humanity, it isn't because of the harm we are doing to "the planet," one of the crazier claims "smart" people make with a straight face. 

As documented on this blog (and by Hannah Ritchie), things are not going badly, on average, for humanity. (E.g., did you hear Deforestation in the Amazon has halved in the last few years? Almost certainly not - we can't contradict the liberal Gospel of Doom!)

Psychologist Adam Mastroianni has a new, long* post about why huge swaths of the population always think "The End Is Nigh!" I would add that believing that I just happen to live in "the most critical time ever" gives our lives a meaning that "serving god" has for many others. 

*It kinda bums me out that, as far as I can tell, the internet rewards volume. The writers I hear about the most are the ones who write very long (and padded) posts. But: It is what it is. More words - more smartitude. 

It is better now, part 112,358 - Cancer

Check out the latest newsletter from Hank and John Green. The first bit is relevant and timely - on Friday, I talked with someone who has unexpectedly (and somewhat temporarily) become pretty powerful in the animal advocacy world. They asked me for advice and I had to say "I don't know" to most questions. (I have experience with management style, and with organizations that don't work / have a net negative impact in the world. But specifics of projects and partnerships -- I just don't know.)

And of course, Our World In Data proves, yet again, how utterly wrong the Doomers are. (At least for the average human.) 

BTW, if your health insurance company wants you to do a "healthy home visit" and promises you money, don't do it. At least ours was a pretty scammy scam - the gift card is only good on a small amount of CVS-branded stuff, and took a ton of time to get to work at all.

Personal health update: I've not only stopped trying to go off the nerve pain med Pregabalin (related to gabapentin) but also increased the dose. Has made my life better overall -- somewhat less pain (except the last 12 hours) and sleeping better. Yay.

Friday the 13th Color Pictures

tl;dr - scroll past the blah-blah-blah to get to pictures

As I've mentioned, I was surprised that most people read the black-and-white paperback version of Losing, not the free color pdf, cheap color ebook, or at-cost color paperback.  

(Note: I've updated the pdf and, earlier this week, the Kindle ebook version, specifically with a note to skip Day 30 - its suckitude is not offset by any usefulness. It was the worst to write and I assume the worst to read. Apologies to everyone who read that chapter.  😢 

Also, if you've only read a print version, you've missed out on the links. Some of which are quite amusing, if I do say so myself. You can see for yourself via the pdf, although, frustratingly, the links don't work (at least for me) when the pdf is opened in the Kindle app.) 

(Also also: several people have reported problems with the ebook version freezing. If you can get the new version (it should have been sent to you already; it has a table of contents; the older one didn't) please see if you still have issues.)

So if you've only seen the B&W versions of the photos, here is the first tranche of the color versions (WARNING: snake):

Oregon coast

Heidelberg, Germany

Moon and Half Dome

Global warming, gritches!

Cottonwood Canyon Road, Grand Staircase Escalante, Utah

Gila Monster

More global warming!

Pasau, Bavaria, Germany

Look closely

Our "honeymoon"

Rebuilt Dresden

Death Valley (and below)

Chiricahua National Monument

Cut from the book but included for you!

B-36

Now for the best subsection: