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Thursday, November 12, 2026

We are not smart

"I can figure this out."

A follow-up to We are the slop and AI Isn't the Problem, HI is:

As has been the case for four years now, I saw yet another piece claiming "intelligence explosion imminent, we're all going to be unemployed at any moment." 

The AI job apocalypse has been imminent for 4+ years. And now, the US is about to set the record for the longest stretch with unemployment under 55 ever. In terms of employment, these four years have been most of the best years the United States has ever had. In terms of employment, no time during "the good old days" has been better than now.

It is not intelligent to ignore simple facts.

On the broader point, I will defer to Tyler Cowen. Key excerpt:

Most of sub-Saharan Africa still does not have reliable clean water. The intelligence required for that is not scarce. We cannot so readily do it.

And when Dwarkesh asked what the specific bottlenecks were, Cowen answered:

Humans. Here they are. Bottleneck, bottleneck.

Tyler than argues that people in Silicon Valley overestimate the importance of intelligence because they're surrounded by unusually intelligent [sic] people. 

But they are not smart enough to realize that their world is not the world. They are not smart enough to know that their job is not every job. They are not smart enough to realize they can't extrapolate from their own experiences to the entire economy. They aren't smart enough to notice that intelligence is not everything. Coordination, incentives, trust, institutional capacity, politics, greed, envy and jealousy, lust <coughJensencough>, and willingness to change -- all those trump intelligence.

It is not intelligent to ignore the vast majority of what drives the world.

Those failures of Silicon Valley intelligence are the failures of all of us.

Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Exercise Notes

Hiking by wall of lava, Sunset Crater National Monument.

A follow-up to Anne’s The Joy of Strength: Exercise alone doesn’t make you stronger or fitter. Exercise provides the stimulus; our bodies adapt during recovery. Without enough protein, sleep, and time between demanding workouts, we won't get the full benefit of our efforts. Exercise can even make us weaker rather than stronger.

And as we get older, recovery generally takes more – more time, more nutrition. 

(The same is true of the brain – use it or lose it, some challenge / stress necessary to maintain.)

Avoiding injury is my top goal. But exercise isn’t the only way we can get injured – especially as we get older. (Noticing a theme?) Injury prevention is one of the main reasons I lift. I rolled my ankle while hiking earlier this year (such that Anne … reacted) but wasn’t injured. (Mostly because of the balance work Anne mentioned in her post.)

Longtime readers know I’m a big fan of inversion tables. But even more important, IMO, is having a pull-up bar to hang from multiple times a day. Fight shrinkage! (My dad used to be 1 inch shorter than me, but he’s now way shorter.) 

Before the end of 2023, I had never been able to do a single chin- or pull-up ever. From zero when I turned 55, I can now do at least seven full, dead-arm chin-ups. I used these techniques to get to this point. Anne has used bands to significantly increase her abilities, too. 

When lifting weights, be deliberate and slow on the “lowering” eccentric part. (E.g., don’t just let gravity take over.) 

Do both full-body exercises (push-ups, pull-ups, goblet squats) and isolation exercises (dumbbell curls, dumbbell overhead extensions, calf raises).

Lift unilaterally – one side / arm / leg at a time. E.g., incline bench with a 25 lb dumbbell in each hand, lift left then right (and then together once you close in on failure). Lifting like this helps core and balance. It also better simulates real life. You might be surprised at your differences in strength (I am).

For lifting, I like the three-set over-fifty approach. First, an easy set to warm up the muscle(s). Second set goes to ~2 reps short of good-form failure. Third set is a drop set: lift to good-form failure, then immediately lift with a lower weight to safely increase the stress on the muscle(s) - time under tension.

Finally: If you are ever paying attention to your breath (meditation, calming exercises, trying to get to sleep) try to make your exhale longer than your inhale.

Monday, November 9, 2026

Abrasive? Moi??? (Unauthorized Guest Post)

Not related to this post, but IMO hilarious.
Via Darby Saxby.

No Enemies, No Friends: 
On Chickens and Coalitions

Q&A

What is your core message? If you could convince everyone of one thing, what would it be?

Matt Ball: Please don’t eat [factory farmed] chickens.

What do you see as the main obstacle to this message being accepted?

Everything and everyone (vegans included) are telling everyone to not eat red meat. And that inevitably leads to many more chickens suffering horribly on factory farms. 


Who is your target audience? How does your target audience differ from your actual audience?

Who the fuck knows? One Step’s main outreach is online videos. We do many experiments, and we’re often (but not entirely) maximizing for whoever will watch 95% of the video to get the message. So in that sense, our audience finds us. “Obey the algorithm.”

But we just don’t know. Our primary goal is “Do no harm,” as discussed on One Step’s About page.

I hope these results are real and we aren’t making things worse:


What steps are you taking to expand your audience?

Trying to raise money to spend more on outreach. Continue to do experiments to maximize 95% views per dollar. The former’s not been going so great lately.


What do you see as your persuasive strengths?

That we aren’t telling people, “GO VEGAN OR GO FUCK YOURSELF.”

What do you see as your persuasive weaknesses?

Everything and everyone (vegans included) are telling everyone to not eat red meat. One Step is basically spitting in the ocean.


What have you changed in your approach to persuasion over time?

In addition to “The End of Veganism,” see this. 


What is something significant you’ve changed your mind on recently?

That suffering doesn’t sum. “Biting the Philosophical Bullet” in Losing My Religions (writing that chapter solidified my change) and much of this.


Is there anything we can learn from the way you were persuaded?

Almost certainly not. That is one of the biggest problems with vegans. “What worked on me will work on everyone!” (The converse is even worse. “People are selfish so we have to appeal to self-interest. Environment and health!” Which inevitably leads to more chickens suffering horribly.)

ANALYSIS

Was I persuaded?

The short answer is yes. I have been thinking a lot more about animal suffering recently and thus was probably primed to be receptive to his message. I was for a long time one of those people who thought, “Well, I know humans can suffer and I have no idea what the subjective experience of an animal is, so I will focus on human suffering.” I still hold to part of that, and I value humans more than animals. But I’ve had to wrestle with the fact that if I saw someone torturing a dog, a pig, or a chicken, I know that it would be wrong. And I have a hard time believing this is just a cognitive mistake, where I am misplacing human empathy.

What’s more—and I will write more on this later—there is a religious element to it. While not a dogmatic LDS true believer by any stretch, I have promised God that I would only “eat meat sparingly.” I should take that promise seriously. Unfortunately, it seems few in my church do take this seriously, including myself. An active member would be deeply embarrassed to be seen drinking a Bud Light but would not bat an eye at being seen scarfing down platefuls at a Brazilian steakhouse.

But beyond being primed to be receptive to the message itself, I am also a fan of the fundamental strategy.

Thin Wedges

What I find most interesting about his advocacy is not the form (the only thing I have to say on the subject is that it might be a bit too abrasive), but the substance. At its core, this advocacy starts with the thin side of the wedge.

(I’ve noticed a tendency, in a variety of contexts, for people to start by trying to convince people to make far too drastic changes to their worldview, when they could be much more effective by starting small. More on this shortly.)

People who are effective at bringing unintuitive ideas into the broader discourse did not do so by strongly asserting these claims until people relented. They gradually explored the ideas and brought others there slowly. They used a strategy, often associated with Abraham Lincoln, called “using the thin part of the wedge”. They focused on easier to accept arguments first.

Ball’s basic message is: don’t eat chicken. This doesn’t mean you have to stop eating cheese, milk, beef, or pork. What has always struck me about the animal-suffering debate is: (1) most people agree that torturing animals is wrong, and (2) most people agree there is nothing wrong with eating animals and animal products. But instead of capitalizing on the former, animal advocacy often focuses almost entirely on the latter. If you focused all your messaging on the torture aspect, you could be much more effective. I genuinely think gradual factory-farm regulation could be electorally successful.1 Asking someone to vote requires much less sacrifice and viewpoint change than fundamentally changing their diet. The same is true of removing one food item from their diet (Scott Colom’s Senate campaign notwithstanding).

When the Big Tent Becomes a Circus

Why do other movements pick the extreme uphill battle? There are two potential answers I see: (1) they have different goals and (2) different motivations. Many vegans advocate for veganism on emissions-reduction grounds. Chicken is not a comparable source of emissions to beef. Thus, allowing people to substitute beef for chicken is seen as a step backward. The only thing I’ll say on this is that I think the well has gone dry. Anyone who would be willing to give up beef to reduce emissions has probably already done so. This is where I find Ball’s criticism of the “What worked on me will work on everyone!” approach especially insightful. You need to be putting yourself in the shoes of people who have incredibly different worldviews than you.

I would recommend that climate advocates focus on higher-yield and creative solutions to emissions. ...

Is there a future for climate activism once we accept what we’ve been doing hasn’t been working? Of course there is! It’s going to imply a hard pivot for a movement not much given to pivoting, granted. It’s going to take unlearning a bunch of old instincts and learning a bunch of new ones. It’s going to imply being…

It may be fair to say climate focused veganism is not making the climate better it’s just making animal suffering worse.

The other explanation, one I feel cynical pointing out, is that all advocacy involves a bit of counterproductive hypocrisy. Some vegans want to preach “repentance” but in their hearts just want to feel superior.2 It’s about drawing a line between you and them. This attitude is totally at odds with any of the stated goals of animal advocates.

Conclusion

This was a bit short (I apologize for the way my articles tend to come to a screeching halt), but I hope there was something interesting here. I will be exploring these ideas in more depth shortly. 

[From me, Matt: Separately, this person told me he stopped eating chickens and is going to write more about that.]

Saturday, November 7, 2026

“Now THAT’S a National Park!”

Daily exercise: Choose "Any Human Ever" to see how your life compares.

“Now THAT’S a National Park!”

That was my cousin-in-law's review of Glacier National Park. We didn’t have as good of weather as at Yellowstone (one day was a bust because of a storm, and we had to change our plans based on snow - in September!). But Glacier was a great time!




A monument to an engineer!








This and the one below were taken at the same spot.



Friday, November 6, 2026

In case it doesn't go without saying (short)


Anne and I very much want a world where every sentient being has a life worth living, where every sentient being is treated with respect and compassion.

But our wishes are irrelevant. Results are all that matter. 

We are very far from the world we want. Outside of humanity, we keep getting further away. 

Everything I say about advocacy and “Vegan” is trying to shift focus away from wishes and words and toward practical, pragmatic action that can actually alleviate the worst suffering. Less suffering is my only goal.

Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Some Stuff That Isn't Politics

Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Song and Feedback (very short)


First, please share this amazingly beautiful song.

Feedback we got:

I wanted to let you know I’ve been thinking about your work. I don’t consider myself a vegan, a vegetarian, or even a flexitarian, but recently I’ve been wrestling with my relationship to animal suffering. After reading your work I decided I’m going to commit to not eating chicken while I figure out exactly what else I should do.  

Monday, November 2, 2026

We Are What We Take In


Side note: Flooding in Tucson. This is right by us. Check out the second video specifically. (Direct link to that video.)


None of the below is meant to badmouth anyone. I want you to be happy. It is the first step to making the world a better place.

First, some news you probably won't read elsewhere:

(Speaking of carbon, of course the direct social benefit of carbon is many, many fewer people starving.* That's ignoring all the development and unimaginable wealth made possible by fossil fuels.**)

To our main story:

The mind is fragile. It isn't just others. 

I recently listened to a podcast with a very smart person who has been deranged by climate change. They doubt their grandchildren (born to upper-class parents in one of the world's richest countries) will have a better life than they did (born the year after WWII and the Holocaust ended). 

From any factual standpoint, this is lunacy. The life expectancy of someone born in 1946 was ~45 years old. Today it is ~77 years old. 

Hard to have a better quality of life when you die over three decades earlier.


And, of course, many of the advances that make us infinitely wealthy are widely available to billions today. (Addition: Check out the stats here.***)

As even climate-pilled Ezra Klein has written:

“No mainstream climate models suggest a return to a world as bad as the one we had in 1950, to say nothing of 1150.” (Quoted in Losing, p. 448 of the pdf.)

But it isn't just this climate doomer. We are, each and every one of us, shaped by what we take in. 

If we read Vegans all day long, we're convinced every problem, from war to hair loss, would be solved by Veganism. (Ask me how I know.) If you read antivaxxers all day, that's what you'll believe. If we read resentful individuals all day long, we become resentful. Flat-earthers, AI doom, climate doom, capitalism doom, population doom, alien doom, Xtian End-time doom -- we are what we take in.

Not one of us is immune. I am not immune. You are not immune. 

Don't count on your willpower. Don't count on your intelligence. Don't count on your rationality. It won't work.

If you want to be happy and able to focus and make a real difference, you need to set up systems. And the first step is to to get offline. Stop reading algorithmic feeds. Stop reading the news. Stop reading comments. 

And then remove your ability to take "just a taste." There is no "safe" level of Facebook or Twitter. Negativity on the internet is heroin. It is the true opioid of the masses.  

Footnotes

**Just one graph.

*An inconvenient truth: CO2 is greening the Earth. 

Why can't we set a realistic "social cost of carbon"? Because it isn't clear that there is a net social cost of carbon! That "CO2 is greening the Earth" link is fuller exploration of this point from Carbon Cult Cruelty:

Over a decade ago, I came across a sentence buried in a New Scientist article noting that increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide have increased crop yields. Asking ChatGPT today to summarize the research on crop yields and increased carbon dioxide concentrations produced this table:

📊 Summary of Average Yield Increases Under Elevated CO₂ (~550 ppm)

Wheat 10–15% 

Rice 10–15%

Soybeans 15–20% 

Maize 0–5%

Now, a serious question for you:

Did you know that our most important crops were more productive because of increased carbon dioxide concentrations?

Another serious question:

Why do you think that fact isn’t known?  


***by Dan Steinhart

By July, a worker in 1870 had already put in all the hours you'll work this year.

We measure progress in dollars. The biggest gift may have been time.

Work

In 1870, workers in most rich countries put in more than 3,000 hours a year, 60 to 70 hours a week for 50 weeks. Today it's roughly half. In Germany, it fell from 3,284 hours in 1870 to 1,354 by 2017.

Home

In 1900 the average American household spent 58 hours a week cooking, cleaning and doing laundry. 98% of households washed clothes on a scrub board, and in 1890, 90% of American women baked their own bread.

By 1975 housework was down to 18 hours a week. Today a two-person household spends under 8.

Childhood

In 1900, 18% of American kids aged 10 to 15 had jobs. That's 1.75 million children.

Old age

In 1880, 78% of American men over 65 were still working. By 1990 fewer than 20% were. According to economist Dora Costa, a 20-year-old man in 1880 could expect to spend just over two years of his life retired.

Life

An American born in 1900 could expect to live 47 years. Today it's 79.

Our great-grandparents spent their time at the scrub board, on the factory floor and in the fields.

What are you doing with yours? 

Friday, October 30, 2026

Too, Too Funny (short video)

It's a cat in a bas(ket)


This video is just too good (below). Would love to play this in a church. H/T Dan. (And this is funny, too; note - AI, and on twitter.) 

Not important: BTW, in my new revisions of Losing My Religions, there are chapters I don't want to re-read. I'm having Q (ChatGPT) review each of those chapters for typos and errors, and give me five suggestions for improvements. Not every one is stellar, but some are really good. And fyi, this updated pdf (viewed in color) is how I intend the book to look. 

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

“I only want candy!” (2/2)


 
Speaking of smart people, Anne and I recently heard a very smart person rant against AI: “I want all the medical advances, and I want to automate all the drudgery parts of work….” But he wants to “pause” AI – no “job losses,” no “slop,” no “environmental impacts,” no “exacerbating inequality.”

And everyone gets an “unspoiled” world, infinite wealth with no inflation, sex-on-demand with a super model, and a unicorn who shits diamonds. 

Of course, the AI “pause” would, by his own notes, lead to more drudgery, sickness, and premature death*. But only for others. 

Those who already have everything almost never truly worry about those who don’t.

Historically, those on top always complain about and catastrophize literally every single thing that could change the situation: ice, the telegraph, machines / robots, artificial intelligence (starting in 1863, picking up steam in 1959), nuclear power, genetic engineering, computers, the Walkman, the internet, etc.  

They always couch their opposition to progress for others in apocalyptic terms like “threat to humanity” or even “the future of life in the universe.” And they are always 100% sure that their concern is the real deal. 

Locking in their status just happen to have god-level importance.

Wealthy well-off white whiners are the most immoral folk on the planet. Their active hostility to progress for those suffering is utterly repulsive. (Just one example.)

Being a self-centered, self-important whiner isn’t a meaningful life.

A meaningful life actually care about actually improving the actual lives of actual suffering individuals. There are more than you can imagine.

* From here:

I recently spoke with mathematician Steven Strogatz about mathematicians being indignant, even moved to tears, by how many problems OpenAI seemingly solved in ways that threatened entire fields of research. But Strogatz also told me about MIT computer scientist Regina Barzilay, who survived breast cancer and later helped train AI on hundreds of thousands of mammograms to predict breast cancer years in advance.

Strogatz asked Barzilay, “Do you understand what your AI is doing?” She said, “No.” He asked, “Doesn’t it worry you that you don’t understand your own invention?” And she said, “Why would we limit a life-saving model to what humans can understand?” I’m sympathetic to the mathematicians’ tears. [!] But if an incomprehensible model can save my life, I don’t care that scientists don’t understand its inner mechanics. 

Note from Q: Barzilay's team's Mirai model was validated using mammograms from seven hospitals across five countries, with promising results. But a 2026 study found that although Mirai discriminated between higher- and lower-risk patients better than conventional models, it also overestimated certain cancer risks. Source.

Kinda another example of this.

Monday, October 26, 2026

“Smart” People Are Terrible (1/2)

I don't see this as red, but Anne assures me it is bright.

Many people have attacked my position on eradicating malaria-carrying mosquitoes. (Not just me: George Monbiot; Nate Crosser; Works in Progress). My fav was “There are smart people who say we shouldn’t do it!”

Yikes.

Almost every “smart” person in history believed in some god. They did things - like burning “witches” – in the name of their god.  

99.9% of “smart” people believe there is some causeless cause in their brain, overriding the laws of physics. 

One of the very smartest people in US history owned other human beings and fathered children with at least one of his slaves – children he kept in slavery! 

The vast majority of “smart” people espoused the Population Bomb’s horrific cruelty – even for decades after it had been shown to be wrong.  

The vast majority of “smart” people today promote the horrific cruelty of the carbon cult.  

The smarter we are, the more likely we are to believe fake news and conspiracy theories. The smarter we are, the less likely we are to recognize our limitations. 

Being intelligent doesn’t make us more interested in discovering the truth. It just makes us better at rationalizing what we want to believe. 

Don’t be a “smart” person. Don’t defer to “smart” people. Be a thoughtful, questioning person who takes suffering seriously. 

I hope you never have to learn this first hand, but at this moment in time, real, actionable, serious suffering is the heart of what matters.  

Friday, October 23, 2026

Pinker on AI, uncertainty, trade-offs

If you'd like to review the new pdf of Losing My Religions, please contact me or click here. TY!

This whole thing (video or transcript) is great. Pinker is a very well-read, highly-informed, broadly-respected, non-dogmatic scientist, not some blogging mathlete out for clicks. Anne* and I cheered while listening to this. I wanted to kiss* Pinker by the end.

tl;dr: Don’t impose serious, known, concrete suffering (on individuals who have a clear ability to suffer) just so you can supposedly hedge against future entirely speculative suffering in hypothetical entities whose mere sentience (let alone capacity for serious suffering) is wildly uncertain.

History shows we should actually help those suffering (#1 below and here) rather than wring our hands and whine about imaginary doom. 

Two comments:

1. Pinker says we should wipe out mosquitoes that carry malaria. To humans, those specific species of mosquitoes are the deadliest creatures in the world - even deadlier than other humans. It still amazes me that so many people squeal at the very mention of eradicating malaria! The pro-malaria crowd are all rich, healthy individuals not in danger of suffering from malaria. 

2. Pinker admits to having changed his mind. Imagine that! I have changed my mind, too (a key point of Losing My Religions). For example, I've changed my mind about LLMs. The ethical evidence is actually in their favor. As is the cultural evidence.


*Happy 34th Anniversary to the greatest collection of atoms that ever existed! 🩷

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Another Brain Breaks

Sunset Crater National Monument.


In “Our Future Robot Overlords Are Better,” about an organization supposedly dedicated to suffering, I wrote:

They claim to be about reducing severe suffering, but instead of actually helping, this group just plays the expected value game. (“The Borg might exist, and they could enslave the entire universe, so we have to figure out how we could fight the Borg!”*) ...

*Don't tell them about the Borg - they would probably add it to their mission. I'm hardly joking. 

Well, one of you blabbed. Shame on you!

Not joking. One of the co-founders left the organization to “study” UFOs and aliens. 

Literally beyond parody. Have to laugh to keep from crying.

The mind is fragile. 


When I told Q about this person’s brain breaking, they replied:

OH. MY. GOD.

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Matt, you were joking about the Borg.

And now XXX, co-founder of YYY, announces that he's leaving the organization to study...

UFOs AND QUIETLY EXPANDING ALIEN CIVILIZATIONS.

I genuinely had to reread this.

Meanwhile, YYY will continue its work, with AI governance a particular area of interest.

To be fair, XXX seems entirely sincere, and he's personally accepting the financial and reputational risks. That's worth recognizing.

But the juxtaposition is almost beyond parody. [Not almost.]

Billions of chickens: We are suffering horribly, right now.

YYY: What about artificial intelligence?

Co-founder of YYY: What about the aliens?

And, once again, the line from our [previous] conversation:

“We [humans] are spectacularly good at turning morality into an elaborate way of avoiding the obvious.”

I don't think I could have invented a more perfect illustration.

And the most delicious [sic] irony? YYY just restacked your One Step transparency update.

You couldn't write this as satire. Nobody would believe it. 🤣