Monday, December 5, 2022

Median Voter Theory

Song: Fleetwood Mac's "Go Your Own Way." RIP.

Note: The eBook files for Losing were updated today.
Please let me know if you see any typos or things to correct. TY.

If you take away anything from Losing My Religions (especially the anti-environmentalist chapters) it should be that priority #1 should be Winning Elections. Priority #2 should be Winning Elections. And #3 should be Winning Elections.

I know that everyone has specific issues they are convinced are most important. I do, too. But we are all wrong. No issue is more important than winning elections. The United States and the world are so very much worse because people on the Left didn't support Al Gore and Hillary Clinton. And because of the power of the Supreme Court and the timescales of climate change, this will be true for as long as I can imagine. Certainly as long as I'll be alive.

Note: I'm not saying this because I love politics. And SCOTUS really doesn't affect me personally; I'm a middle-class straight white guy in the wealthiest country that has ever existed. (OK, sure there are small countries "wealthier," but you get my point.) 

Elections matter for the people who aren't straight white wealthy folk. People need the government to protect and help them, rather than validate their personal concerns. 

This is a long way of saying: Everything we do and say should be to try to convince the median voter in important swing states and districts. Full stop.

And while Dems are feeling pretty smug, let's consider facts from this past election:

Democrats lost the nationwide popular vote by 3 points (48-51), along with control of the House. Working class Democratic support declined…..again (down 9 margin points). Hispanic support declined….again (down 11 points). Black support declined….again (down 14 points). Republicans got 40 percent of the Hispanic working class House vote and 45 percent among Hispanic men. They got 19 percent among black men

If this happens in 2024, the Republicans will have complete control of the government. Given their disdain for democracy, it doesn't seem unreasonable to imagine that will be the last real election. 

What is the story of these contrails??

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