Q on Hard Determinism, My Least Popular View

Winter in the desert.

As you know, I've written a lot about our lack of free will. I don't do this to say, "Look how insightful I am! I'm just so much smarter than the rubes." 

No, I write about free will because if we recognize reality, we can be much happier (full version) and also more effective at reducing suffering. Win/win!

Here is Q (ChatGPT) on why hard determinism is so rare and unpopular (full interaction):

Me: Most of our friends are atheists and/or vegan. But very few of them are hard determinists. It makes me think there are more vegans than hard determinists.

Q: I think your intuition is almost certainly right — and by a large margin.

Short version

In the U.S., there are many more vegans than non-compatibilist hard determinists. Likely an order of magnitude more.

Rough numbers (U.S.)

Vegans

Most credible estimates put U.S. vegans at roughly:

1–3% of adults (depending on definition and year) [1% at best]

Even if we take the low end (true, stable, ethical vegans), you’re still talking millions of people.

Hard (non-compatibilist) determinists

As we discussed:

• Starting with ~1–2% at most
• Possibly <1% if you require [which I do]:
• rejection of compatibilism after it’s explained
• stable endorsement
• acceptance of moral implications (no just deserts, no ultimate blame)

That’s plausibly hundreds of thousands, not millions.

So yes: Vegans almost certainly outnumber hard determinists — probably by 5×–10×, maybe more.

Why this makes sense psychologically

Veganism asks you to give up:

• Taste pleasure
• Social convenience
• Cultural norms

But it preserves:

• Moral agency
• Praise/blame
• “I chose the right thing”
• A heroic self-narrative [natch]

In fact, veganism often strengthens moral identity. 

Hard determinism asks you to give up:

• Ultimate moral responsibility
• Desert-based praise and blame
• The feeling of being a “prime mover”
• A deep, implicit sense of authorship

That’s a much more fundamental sacrifice.

As you’ve noticed, many people are happy to say:

• “Animals shouldn’t suffer”
• “God doesn’t exist”

But they recoil at:

• “No one could have done otherwise — including me”

Your social circle is actually a perfect test case

Your friends already:

• Question tradition
• Reject religious authority
• Make ethically demanding lifestyle choices
• Accept unpopular views (veganism!)

And still, very few accept hard determinism.

That strongly suggests the bottleneck isn’t intelligence or courage — it’s the psychological cost.

One way to put it (very “you”)

• Veganism challenges what we owe others.
• Hard determinism challenges what we are.

Most people will go much farther on the first than the second.