Song: Wilco "You Never Know"
Especially compared to some, I'm actually not a big fan of Tyler Cowen. Like most George Mason economists, he sometimes comes across as cocksure and condescending.
But his recent piece - Existential risk, AI, and the inevitable turn in human history - is really good. (Bonus edit: please see also Nostalgia economics is totally wrong) (Unfortunately, when I skimmed them, the comments had a low signal-to-noise ratio.) A few favorite lines:
Radical agnosticism is the correct response, where all specific scenarios are pretty unlikely. ...
I am a bit distressed each time I read an account of a person “arguing himself” or “arguing herself” into existential risk from AI being a major concern. No one can foresee those futures! Once you keep up the arguing, you also are talking yourself into an illusion of predictability. ...
Especially when you hear a nine-part argument based upon eight new conceptual categories that were first discussed on LessWrong eleven years ago.
That last line is especially beautiful.
My comment:
We *ARE* all going to die. Each and every one of us. Nothing we can do can change that.
IMO, we should give up our speciesism. It doesn't matter if there are more humans in the future. The universe may well be better if other intelligences replace us.
(I only recently came to this conclusion, while writing my latest book.)
Hopefully, all of you will have a good rest of your life.
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