About the author

Matt is the author, co-author, secondary-author, ghost-author, and non-author of articles, speeches, book chapters, and even entire books! Next will be the bestseller "Losing My Religions." Currently, he is President of One Step for Animals; previously, he was shitcanned from more nonprofits than there is room to list here. Before Matt’s unfortunate encounter with activism, he was an aerospace engineer who wanted to work for NASA to impress Carl Sagan. His hobbies include photography, almost dying, and {REDACTED} He lives in Tucson with Anne and no dogs, no cats, and no African tortoises (although he cares for all of these).

Saturday, September 11, 2021

Don't make estimates. Don't listen to estimates.

"Professional forecasters offer highly variable predictions about likely sales of new product, likely growth in the unemployment rate, the likelihood of bankruptcy for troubled companies, and justified everything else. Not only do they disagree with each other, but they also disagree with themselves. For example when the same software developers were asked on two separate days to estimate the completion time for the same task, they hours they projected differed by 71% on average."

-Noise, by Danny Kahneman et al 

No comments: