Monday, March 23, 2020

This. Over and Over and Over.

Exponential Threat (YouTube video)

1 comment:

Austen said...

Don’t you think that governments’ modelling of the impact of coronavirus should include disability-adjusted life years from the social distancing measures, in addition to the DALYs caused by the virus directly on health? Most people who die from COVID-19 are very old and already very unhealthy. Few people who get infected ever have severe symptoms. DALYs from coronavirus are modest.
The decrease in quality of life by the imposed isolation measures and the total economic destruction that comes along with them may outweigh the DALYs caused directly by the virus. Poverty, homelessness, social isolation, poor mental health, addiction, obesity, and suicide are long-term consequences of the isolation measures and probably cause many times more DALYs than if no distancing measures were imposed and everyone caught coronavirus. (Especially considering some countries expect everyone to catch COVID-19 no matter what are are enforcing isolation measures only to slow the spread so as not to overwhelm hospitals).
Medications are only approved by the FDA if they are effective in treating a medical condition while having minimal side effects. If the side effects of a medication outweighs its benefits, it will not be approved. In the same way, don’t you think that government should use comprehensive modelling of the personal effects of isolation measures that are just as sophisticated as the viral contagion models and have equal weight, DALY for DALY?